The Myth of Natural Growth, Who Are They Fooling?

April 5, 2001

The recent declaration of the Israeli Housing Ministry that it plans to construct 5,000 housing units in Jewish settlements in the West Bank in 2001 drew a lot of criticism from all over the world. Various members of the world community expressed their distress from the move since it damaged the prospects of reviving the long-frozen peace talks. However, what should have been noted is not the construction of new housing units but rather the Israeli claim that this plan comes in response to ''natural growth''. As will be demonstrated shortly, the growth is by no means ''natural'' but politically and financially induced to serve a specific political objective. By taking a look at the population growth in the last few years one observes the following:

The Growth in Population

	Israel		Jews only		Settlements in WBGS
Year	Population in thousands	Growth	Population in thousands	Growth	Population in thousands	Growth
1993	5327.6		4335.2		116
1994	5471.5	3%	4441.1	2%	128	10%
1995	5612.3	3%	4522.3	2%	133	4%
1996	5757.9	3%	4616.1	2%	147	11%
1997	5900.0	2%	4701.6	2%	160.2	9%
1998	6041.4	2%	4785.1	2%	172.2	7%

Source: Statistical Abstract of Israel, various issues.

The average growth rate for Jews in Israel is 2.0% per year (the rate including non-Jews is 2.5% per year). However, the population of the Jewish settlements grows at around 8.5% per year, which amounts to over four times the Israeli growth rate. Between 1996-98 there were 130 settlements that had an average annual growth of over 2%. That means that over 80% of the settlements grow at rates higher than the overall Israeli average. Some settlements like Peat Sade and Lapid grew by 150% in those two years.

Indeed, why wouldn't the settlement population increase at such exponential rates when all Israeli governments (both Labor and Likud) uphold substantial incentives to encourage Jewish migration into the West Bank and Gaza? The incentives are extremely tempting: business grants, housing grants, subsidized mortgages, free schooling from the age of 3, free school busing, and a 7% income tax break. In November last year the government announced it planned to spend 1.2 Billion NIS (300 million US dollars) in 2001 on the settlers. At the same time, it was reported that in Atarot industrial settlement near Qalandia 60 factories (of a total 200) closed down (Al Quds 24-3-2001). Hence the growth in the settlements is by no means spontaneous or self-perpetuating but rather funded, supported and maintained by the Israeli government despite it being an economic burden.

In terms of size, the settlements have also seen unprecedented growth. The area occupied by the settlements in the West Bank doubled in the seven years between 1992 and 1999 from 77 square kilometers (which represented 1.3% of the West Bank) to 150 square kilometers (which represents 2.6% of the West Bank).

Furthermore, the Israelis also claim that ''no new settlements will be built''. But, the Israeli authorities have already approved over 40 outposts that were erected since 1996. These outposts are scattered allover the West Bank and serve as nuclei for new settlements. Hence, the declaration of halting the construction of new settlements is just a ploy since the seeds for new settlements are already there; click here to see the locations of the expansions.

List Of New Expansion in The West Bank

District		Mother Settlement	Expansion	Area in Dunums
Bethlehem	1	Har Gilo	New Expansion	332
	2	Neve Daniyyel	New Expansion	263
	3	Kefar David	Outpost_Sdeh Bar Farm	125
	4	Tekoa	New Expansion	122
	5	Betar Illit	New Expansion	28
	6	Alon Shevut	Outpost-Givat Ha'hish	19
	7	Har Homa	New Expansion	18
Total				907
Hebron	1	Migdal Oz	New Expansion	104
	2	Ma'ale Amos	Outpost_Ivei Ha'nachal	87
	3	Maon	New Expansion	33
	4	Metzadot Yehuda	Outpost_Nof Nesher	31
	5	Tene Omarim	Outpost_Tene Omarim SE Caravans	26
	6	Suseya	Outpost_Magen David Farm	10
	7	Tene Omarim	Outpost_Tene Omarim N Caravans	4
	8	Maon	Outpost_Maon Farm	2
Total				297
Jericho	1	near_Maale Efrayim	New Site	159
	2	Pezael (Fezael)	New Expansion	22
Total				181
Jerusalem	1	Pisgat Amir	New Expansion	77
	2	Adam (Geva Benyamin)	New Expansion	62
	3	2091950_near Ramot	New Expansion	38
	4	Kokhav Yaacov	New Expansion	29
Total				206
Nablus	1	Homesh	New Expansion	32
	2	Bracha	Outpost Beracha A	16
	3	2030350_Gvaot Olamn	New Expansion Gvaot Olamn	12
	4	Mizpe Rahel ( Shvut Rahel )	Outpost Ahiya (Hill D)	9
	5	Shilo	New Expansion	8
	6	Itamar	Outpost Hil Neighborhood (Hill 777)	8
	7	Yitzhar	Outpost Yitzhar Eastern Hill	7
	8	Yitzhar	Outpost Ahuzat Shalhevet	4
	9	Bracha	Outpost Sneh Ya'akov	1
Total				97
Qalqiliya	1	near Alfe Manashe	New Site	219
	2	near Zufin	New Site	185
	3	Neve Oranim	New Expansion	142
	4	2050760 – near Alfe Manashe	New Expansion	9
	5	Karne Shomron	Outpost_Nof Kane Farm	7
Total				562
Ramallah	1	2081360 next to Shilo	New Expansion	156
	2	Shilo	Outpost Shillo East 2	48
	3	Kochav Ha'shachar	Outpost Mizpe Keramim	35
	4	Ofra	Outpost Amona	26
	5	Shilo	Outpost Givat Harel (Hill 740)	17
	6	Menora	New Expanstion	15
	7	Shilo	Outpost Shillo East 1	10
	8	Halamish	Outpost Zofit Farm	7
	9	Talmon North	Outpost Haresha	4
	10	Shevut Rachel	Outpost Adi Ad (Hill F, Hill 799)	1
Total				319
Salfit	1	Ginnot Shomeron	New Expansion	53
	2	Yakir	New Expansion	39
	3	Kefar Tapuah	Outpost Kefar Tapuah Hill 660	35
	4	Between Gavri'el , Barqan	New Site	7
Total				134
Tulkarm	1	Avnei Hefetz	Outpost Avnei Hefetz Eastern Caravans	6
Total				6
Grand Total				2709

Source: ARIJ database 1999. (1 Dunum = 1000m2)

All this happened during the peace talks and the alleged commitment to refrain from Tak[ing] any step that will change the status of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip..' Article XXXI, Oslo II.

In the last two months alone there were several plans for new housing units: 2800 housing units for Jabal Abu Ghneim (Har Homa), 6000 for Gavaot, 700 for Maale Adumim and Alfe Menashe, as well as others. American officials say that there are at least 20,000 housing units that are empty and hence there is no need for new ones (Haaretz 10-4-2001).

It is hard to see, after all this, how the Israeli side can sustain its claim of building new housing units only to cater for natural growth. There is nothing natural in a 9% increase in population every year and the large scale destruction of Palestinian land in such a short period of time attests just that. The growth is aggressive not ''natural''; see photo1, photo2.

Israel's policy of building settlements and expanding them in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is part of a political strategy that aims at dispossessing the Palestinians of their land and at the same time keeping control over whatever is left of Palestinian towns and villages. The building of settlements is the proof that Israel is not serious about achieving a just and viable settlement to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Prepared by:
The Applied Research Institute – Jerusalem